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Dec 28, 2012
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we have debt that's being issued by governments, by corporations. will we need a capital markets business? even though the capital markets businesses aren't beating their cost of capital right now what we're seeing is we're seeing compensation levels coming down, increasing the margins in it. we're seeing inventory levels come in. that means that the amount of capital that they're putting, that they have there is dropping, which of course would be an improvement in roes. all of this leads to a world of sort of a repricing of the capital markets. wider bid offers treads, less tratding volume, less risk taken but will there be a capital markets business? the answer is yes. unfortunately right now the issue we have is the fiscal cliff which makes everything uncertain at least through march. a lot of washington circus going on. we, you know, i think it's pretty reasonable to assume that no politician, no libertarian would ever want the u.s. to default on its debt. so by march we should have a solution to that. then what we are is we're back in an enviro
we have debt that's being issued by governments, by corporations. will we need a capital markets business? even though the capital markets businesses aren't beating their cost of capital right now what we're seeing is we're seeing compensation levels coming down, increasing the margins in it. we're seeing inventory levels come in. that means that the amount of capital that they're putting, that they have there is dropping, which of course would be an improvement in roes. all of this leads to a...
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Dec 26, 2012
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govern from the middle and lead. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. >>> a huge storm spanning frlgts midwest to the east coast is dumping plenty of snow and rain across the nation. dr. greg postell from the weather channel has more on exactly what's going on. over to you. >> thanks, the snow storm is beginning to wind down across parts of the midwest. parts of ohio, really, the know is almost over. they have received in parts o
govern from the middle and lead. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to...
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Dec 22, 2012
12/12
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why hasn't the government shut it down? just tell the justice department if the ceo wants to stop him from attacking his company, why not sue him? more important though, i don't care who is right. i care about you not losing money. battlegrounds like this one must abe voided because facts stop mattering and emotions take over. three stories. three battlegrounds. run from and not to the battlefield. you'll be a heck of a lot safer and wealthier if you do. customer erin swenson bought from us online today. so, i'm happy. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics. [ maplays a key role resethroughout our lives.alth one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to sup
why hasn't the government shut it down? just tell the justice department if the ceo wants to stop him from attacking his company, why not sue him? more important though, i don't care who is right. i care about you not losing money. battlegrounds like this one must abe voided because facts stop mattering and emotions take over. three stories. three battlegrounds. run from and not to the battlefield. you'll be a heck of a lot safer and wealthier if you do. customer erin swenson bought from us...
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Dec 27, 2012
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government would not pay interest on its debts. have -- you know perfectly well will is about a million things. i have been in the country where they ran out of borrowing capacity and managed important several years to survive without that borrowing capacity. there's a million things you can do before. you don't pay your debt on the u.s. treasuries before you stop paying social security, before you do lots of other things. is he purposefully trying to elevate this to a situation that frightens people? >> in many ways -- this is like the mayan calendar. they said the world would end december 21. we are all still here. the fiscal cliff negotiations and the debts limit thing are not the end of the world and we will figure it out. the most important thing to keep in mind is long term. we want to have a healthy fiscal situation. we have to have a healthy economy. we have to address growth. here's something else that is -- totally missing from this conversation. >> jimmy? >> understand that the executive branch is required under federal
government would not pay interest on its debts. have -- you know perfectly well will is about a million things. i have been in the country where they ran out of borrowing capacity and managed important several years to survive without that borrowing capacity. there's a million things you can do before. you don't pay your debt on the u.s. treasuries before you stop paying social security, before you do lots of other things. is he purposefully trying to elevate this to a situation that frightens...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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you have to remember, a government has a hard time strengthening its currency, but governments can very easily weaken their currencies, simply by printing them and when the japanese said they are going to print them in an unlimited fashion, you have to believe them. >> also, the other difference here between japan and what's going on for instance here in the united states is that in japan, there are still positive real rates so the bank of japan has the freedom and the leeway to really impact what's going on with the yen. >> well, they've made it clear that that's what they intend to do. they're going to take rates to negative numbers over there, mel, before it's done. they have choice and that's what's going to end up happening. they have the exporters with them, at their back, to help them along the line. and you have, i think, a failing demographic circumstances. there's nothing they can do to help the economy itself, other than to help exports. there's nothing they're going to do to help the consumers, who are falling in numbers. they have to continue to export goods and services ou
you have to remember, a government has a hard time strengthening its currency, but governments can very easily weaken their currencies, simply by printing them and when the japanese said they are going to print them in an unlimited fashion, you have to believe them. >> also, the other difference here between japan and what's going on for instance here in the united states is that in japan, there are still positive real rates so the bank of japan has the freedom and the leeway to really...
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Dec 28, 2012
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you have forest service, 30% of the land is owned by the federal government. so there's a lot of federal dollars that come to montana. that's part of the system. >> what would be the economic impact, going back to what the farmer was telling us about the situation, if estate taxes go up 55%. we're going to see farmers cutting back on the size of their farms, some may even go out of business. what's the economic impact and how can you mitigate that, governor? >> the difficulty here is over the long-term. naturally, sometime during january if we go over the cliff which is more of a hill, these congressmen will come to their senses. they've gone completely crazy and apparently if you vote for something on december tlonl, then it's okay with grover nor quist and if it's after december 31st, it's something else. look, a pledge is one thing, but look right now we've been spending money on a credit card nationally for the last ten years without paying for it. both parties have been doing it. it's time to pay down. spend less and we have to raise more money. >> that's
you have forest service, 30% of the land is owned by the federal government. so there's a lot of federal dollars that come to montana. that's part of the system. >> what would be the economic impact, going back to what the farmer was telling us about the situation, if estate taxes go up 55%. we're going to see farmers cutting back on the size of their farms, some may even go out of business. what's the economic impact and how can you mitigate that, governor? >> the difficulty here...
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Dec 26, 2012
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that's why we have to slash government spending. the nation is broke. >> but peter, peter, michael farr, while we need this reduction in spending and i'm totally with you, we don't need this ham-handed kind of blunt instrument approach to figuring out the solutions to these problems. i mean, these guys have had all the time in the world to come up with the simpson-bowles and they just refuse to take responsible action. >> but they're not going to do that. it's funny, people talk about we need a solution that avoids the fiscal cliff but that solves our long-term problems. these things are mutually exclusive. we can't solve our problems without going over a cliff. the problem is the cliff is too small to actually solve the problem. it needs to be much bigger. [ speaking simultaneously ] >> how much confidence would, let's say we go over the cliff and we cut spending, we raise taxes, and the fiscal situation, albeit through a short recession, helps the fiscal long-term situation of america. how much confidence could that add to many pe
that's why we have to slash government spending. the nation is broke. >> but peter, peter, michael farr, while we need this reduction in spending and i'm totally with you, we don't need this ham-handed kind of blunt instrument approach to figuring out the solutions to these problems. i mean, these guys have had all the time in the world to come up with the simpson-bowles and they just refuse to take responsible action. >> but they're not going to do that. it's funny, people talk...
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Dec 27, 2012
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we fall off the cliff, the fear is that we fall off the cliff, not slowly glide down the cliffch the government at this point needs to understand that we should be able to trust you to do the right thing, put politics aside and think about us, the people that's why we have government. fix it. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... you know it even after all these years. but your erectile dysfunction - you know,that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to tr
we fall off the cliff, the fear is that we fall off the cliff, not slowly glide down the cliffch the government at this point needs to understand that we should be able to trust you to do the right thing, put politics aside and think about us, the people that's why we have government. fix it. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a...
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Dec 24, 2012
12/12
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that's governing from fear. as opposed to governing from leadership. and somebody else on a show one day said a lot of these republicans really believe, this is what they really, really believe in. that's great. but at some point one side or the other, and in fact both, are going to have to give a little. >> kiki, i would be -- i would think you would be sensitive to talking about leadership. i mean, when you say that, you don't hear irony? that's the -- maybe it's just the other side, the republicans talking about president obama, but, you in the last six, the last five years, have you seen a president that comes together and leads both? >> yeah. >> you have? >> have you, tony? >> i've seen a president who went out and campaigned on a certain series of things that he believed were important for the country and that he wanted to do, and he went and he pursued them. and that's leadership. >> he's pursuing them. but i think everybody's pursuing what they have to pursue. you've been listening to us for the last few months. i think we've been saying that t
that's governing from fear. as opposed to governing from leadership. and somebody else on a show one day said a lot of these republicans really believe, this is what they really, really believe in. that's great. but at some point one side or the other, and in fact both, are going to have to give a little. >> kiki, i would be -- i would think you would be sensitive to talking about leadership. i mean, when you say that, you don't hear irony? that's the -- maybe it's just the other side,...
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Dec 26, 2012
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government, i take that back, only can government, period, including the u.s. government turn a detour into a four-lane highway, okay? let's talk about infusion. governments tried to create faux guarantees when they set up the gses when they created the structure of special financing and faux guarantees whether they were applied or assumed, we all know how it turned out. taxpayers ended up getting the bill when government took over the space. and then we get all the faux guarantees of fixing the original faux guarantees as the intrusion really did get worse. i take you back to september of 2008 when the gses were put in the conservatorship and then treasury secretary paulson said the following quote. i attribute the need for today's action, talking about conservatorship, primarily to the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the gse government sponsored enterprise structure and to the ongoing housing correction. well, first of all, how many experts have we had on lately that have said housing is doing much better. today's kate shiler seems to
government, i take that back, only can government, period, including the u.s. government turn a detour into a four-lane highway, okay? let's talk about infusion. governments tried to create faux guarantees when they set up the gses when they created the structure of special financing and faux guarantees whether they were applied or assumed, we all know how it turned out. taxpayers ended up getting the bill when government took over the space. and then we get all the faux guarantees of fixing...
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Dec 26, 2012
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the reductions in spending over time can happen over time, the way our government keeps track is over a decade. >> right. >> so we don't need to do it all today, and as far as higher taxes go, there's a group of people who will sign this pledge not to raise taxes, and, you know, more than two-thirds are millionaires who said, you know what, we'll pay more taxes because in the end analysis, the investment we would make in paying more in taxes to get the economy going will return in wealth very quickly if we get the economy back to where it should be. >> there's a very good article on cnbc.com about the possibility that congress might decide to start tax is employer-sponsored health insurance. do you think that's a possibility, and what impact would that have on you? >> everything needs to be on the table. if we're going to have a good solution that gets at our deficit and reduce our debt everything has to be on the table and we'll deal with it. it's great to have rules. we just like to know what they are so we can make the right investments moving forward. >> even if it puts us in a cl
the reductions in spending over time can happen over time, the way our government keeps track is over a decade. >> right. >> so we don't need to do it all today, and as far as higher taxes go, there's a group of people who will sign this pledge not to raise taxes, and, you know, more than two-thirds are millionaires who said, you know what, we'll pay more taxes because in the end analysis, the investment we would make in paying more in taxes to get the economy going will return in...
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Dec 28, 2012
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if there's a cut in government spending, where is the lift coming from, consumers, investment? therefore, the u.s. economy, we're on fragile ground right now. >> short term, sarge, this market held hostage minute by minute by the developments out of washington. >> yeah, sure, if we don't see any kind of compromise whatsoever, you'll see this s&p 500 trading in the 1360s next week. i think you'll get a short-term deal, address some of the issues, not really solve anything, kick the can down the road much like they do in europe and get your mild positive reaction going into the jobs data on friday. >> do you think we get a definitive move in this market one way or the other with some announcement out of washington, or is this market just so tired of all of the developments there? what do you think? >> well, there's still a risk-on trend, and if they kick the can down the road or actually come to some kind of compromise, that trend is intact, and you'll see going into the first few months of the year i believe very positive price action for all the equity indexs? >> what now, rick
if there's a cut in government spending, where is the lift coming from, consumers, investment? therefore, the u.s. economy, we're on fragile ground right now. >> short term, sarge, this market held hostage minute by minute by the developments out of washington. >> yeah, sure, if we don't see any kind of compromise whatsoever, you'll see this s&p 500 trading in the 1360s next week. i think you'll get a short-term deal, address some of the issues, not really solve anything, kick...
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Dec 22, 2012
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how is your party going to get out from under that label that they're still the party of big government. >> well, a couple things. first of all, remember that in the aftermath of this election, the president's message has resinated with the american people and the ability of republicans in congress, a more fundamental problem the republicans have in that the party, half of -- most of -- the fight is within the republican party, which makes it very hard for them to get out a message. my point being, as democrats, you almost just have to stand back and let the chaos speak for itself on the republican side. i think that what you'll see from democrats is, you know, you'll continue to hear the language that, you know, everybody's open to having a conversation, a balanced approach and all of that, but again, at the end of the day, i think part of the challenge that the republicans continue to have is there's not one message. not a unified message. and this debacle that we've just saw, you know, last night doesn't do much to instill much confidence that boehner himself can actually drive a mes
how is your party going to get out from under that label that they're still the party of big government. >> well, a couple things. first of all, remember that in the aftermath of this election, the president's message has resinated with the american people and the ability of republicans in congress, a more fundamental problem the republicans have in that the party, half of -- most of -- the fight is within the republican party, which makes it very hard for them to get out a message. my...
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Dec 27, 2012
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but the government is 90% of the market. if you look at firms like ours we basically do ginnie mae and nonconfirming production. we'll do maybe a couple billion dollars this year. that's a drop in the bucket. this is still completely a government market. >> i asked john this question earlier, talking about some of the regulations from dodd-frank which haven't come into effect yet. of the 200 plus that are not on the books, what's the one or two that you're looking at that you think are a game changer. >> in terms of what? >> that may ultimately change some of the derivative stuff, what you think the impact of both -- >> we've talked about this. volcker has taken a lot of liquidity out of the market just in terms of -- >> but none of this is on the books. nobody's actually -- it's not there yet. >> the behavioral changes have already come because the lawyers have told the banks you have to live with the volcker rule. they've already done it. my big fear, though, is that the conservatives are trying to winnow down fannie, fred
but the government is 90% of the market. if you look at firms like ours we basically do ginnie mae and nonconfirming production. we'll do maybe a couple billion dollars this year. that's a drop in the bucket. this is still completely a government market. >> i asked john this question earlier, talking about some of the regulations from dodd-frank which haven't come into effect yet. of the 200 plus that are not on the books, what's the one or two that you're looking at that you think are a...
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Dec 29, 2012
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the amendment which had govern the a lot of u.s.-russian/soviet relations going back to the 1970s had to be replaced. it was replaced in congress by the act which set russia's worst human viets violators there should be consequences when it comes to getting visas. vladimir mute indecided to lash out to the united states by pointing a figurative rifle at the head of russia's orphans. >> we improve russia's trade relation with us, officially and then he gets upset because buried within there is a little clause that says, as you point out, the worst human rights violators should have trouble getting into the united states. how far should we go, throw, right? i brought this up last night and i'll bring it up again with you. in the united states we believe that people all over the world have certain rights regardless of geography, regardless of ethnicity, regardless of religion. they are inalienable and it is unfathomable to us that there are parts of the world where they don't believe that. it's amazing, but true. how far do we go in pu
the amendment which had govern the a lot of u.s.-russian/soviet relations going back to the 1970s had to be replaced. it was replaced in congress by the act which set russia's worst human viets violators there should be consequences when it comes to getting visas. vladimir mute indecided to lash out to the united states by pointing a figurative rifle at the head of russia's orphans. >> we improve russia's trade relation with us, officially and then he gets upset because buried within...
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Dec 28, 2012
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was a tremendous emotional response and the guns were banned and those people who owned them and the government knew where they were because they were all registered were required to hand them in even the target shooting olympic team was not allowed to keep guns in the country and they had to practice and keep their guns abroad, but nonetheless, within the decade of guns being withdrawn from these people gun crime with handguns actually doubled and guns are really are awash on the streets and there's a fair amount of street crime using handguns which there hadn't been much of before, and it's beyond which was something that traditionally they never were. so it hasn't worked and what it has done and it's taken the guns away from the law-abiding people that might have used them to protect themselves or to do something else with legitimately. >> what do you say to people who look at united states and say, wow! random mass murderers -- i heard it today. random mass murders in the united states where some whacko killed a bunch of people he doesn't know seems to happen every six months in the united
was a tremendous emotional response and the guns were banned and those people who owned them and the government knew where they were because they were all registered were required to hand them in even the target shooting olympic team was not allowed to keep guns in the country and they had to practice and keep their guns abroad, but nonetheless, within the decade of guns being withdrawn from these people gun crime with handguns actually doubled and guns are really are awash on the streets and...
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Dec 26, 2012
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the government, easy. let's put it off. it's not their money. they don't feel the same intensity handicapping whether something should continue or not. these are things we need to grapple with. if we just have rigid ideologicallies, under no condition go over the cliff we become another aspect of the propaganda i'm so sick of that reached its crescendo at midnight november 5th. >> the way i think future generations, if i were to write an economics book, the way that fracking and horizontal drilling, we start with, you know, the notion we're running out of oil, it's going to be gone, we need the government to create the next energy industry. we will spend all this money on these renewable things. it will be great. we know how to do it, we have experts. then a disruptive market driven technology comes along that generates $2 natural gas makes all that stuff or basically puts it into the future and the money just went down the drain. a case study the way dwogovernm planning and infrastructure spending, you will get 10 cents of every dollar you spen
the government, easy. let's put it off. it's not their money. they don't feel the same intensity handicapping whether something should continue or not. these are things we need to grapple with. if we just have rigid ideologicallies, under no condition go over the cliff we become another aspect of the propaganda i'm so sick of that reached its crescendo at midnight november 5th. >> the way i think future generations, if i were to write an economics book, the way that fracking and...
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Dec 28, 2012
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that is not the job of the government. the government's job is to raise taxes and to lower taxes when our economy needs it. that's what the senate does. john breaux, former senator john breaux from louisiana sat on the floor during the 2001 tax bill and said our job is to raise taxes when they need to be raised and lower them when they need to be lowered. that's the senate and the house's job. >> but, one man's -- is another man's -- if you look at the laugher curve you don't know when to raise and when to lower at this point. >> president obama kept bush's taxes in for two years. >> i know. >> but suddenly, you know, democrats like you love the 98%, and you hate the 2%. it's very weird. >> tell him, joe. >> don't hate the 2%. i'm not a self-loathing hater. i don't hate the 2%. >> hey, joe, before we go, you mentioned -- you heard jimmy talking about the decider. that made me think of 4-3. but my heart and mind are with 41 and you worked for him. do you know anything? >> nothing new. we're just keeping him in our prayers.
that is not the job of the government. the government's job is to raise taxes and to lower taxes when our economy needs it. that's what the senate does. john breaux, former senator john breaux from louisiana sat on the floor during the 2001 tax bill and said our job is to raise taxes when they need to be raised and lower them when they need to be lowered. that's the senate and the house's job. >> but, one man's -- is another man's -- if you look at the laugher curve you don't know when to...
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Dec 27, 2012
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to think that the government, federal government certainly was closed on monday and tuesday, some of the state government was closed for both days, one of those days as well, saying maybe it came in a little bit light. some interpretation but funny to see all the headlines crossing this morning saying the futures were moving based on claims or the treasuries based on claims numbers and not what was going on on the fiscal cliff. >> a crummy start to the year we get a fourth strike on top of all that, true. >> not such a crummy year for japan. japanese stocks rallying you can the yen continuing its slide against the dollar in all the major currencies, in fact. asian markets mixed overnight trading. the nikkei climbing to a closing level not seen since just before the march 2011 earthquake, marking a third day of gains, mostly drive bine hopes for a new stimulus policy. the yen is sitting closes to the lowest level since september 2010 against the dollar. interesting here because now a lot of people are saying the best or the hottest trade in 2013 will, in fact, be long japanese stocks
to think that the government, federal government certainly was closed on monday and tuesday, some of the state government was closed for both days, one of those days as well, saying maybe it came in a little bit light. some interpretation but funny to see all the headlines crossing this morning saying the futures were moving based on claims or the treasuries based on claims numbers and not what was going on on the fiscal cliff. >> a crummy start to the year we get a fourth strike on top...
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Dec 24, 2012
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>> well, this is a disaster for state and local units of government. the first order of effect is that the cost of infrastructure becomes much, much higher. costs of financing go up. the availability of investors declines. interest rates rise for municipal issuers. and so what happens to all that higher tax-exempt interest cost that issuers have to bear? it's ultimately borne by the taxpayer themselves. so really, this is just a transference of the taxes and subsidy back onto the shoulders of the regular property tax and income taxpayer at the local level. >> wow. a lot to keep track of. chris, thanks for giving us your thoughts this morning. >> thank yhankery much. >>> gas prices at the lowest level we've seen in more than a year. what does 2013 hold for energy. find out after the break. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your
>> well, this is a disaster for state and local units of government. the first order of effect is that the cost of infrastructure becomes much, much higher. costs of financing go up. the availability of investors declines. interest rates rise for municipal issuers. and so what happens to all that higher tax-exempt interest cost that issuers have to bear? it's ultimately borne by the taxpayer themselves. so really, this is just a transference of the taxes and subsidy back onto the...